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Of course, we continue to pay attention to the second round of EU-UK trade negotiations that began today, but on the eve of the negotiations, the EU s chief negotiator Barnier warned Britain that should it fails to comply with its commitments, there may be a no-deal Brexit. Therefore, the financial market remains extremely worried that failing to reach a relevant agreement by the two parties will result in a Brexit without a trade agreement when the transition period is over at the end of the year. Of course, the pound may rebound if there is a dramatic turnaround, but the outlook is still pessimistic.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Regardless of whether the UK and the EU have reached an agreement in trade negotiations, the new coronavirus has caused the worst economic blow to the UK in 100 years. Therefore, forex traders generally believe that the Bank of England will implement negative interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.
　　In order to support the weak economy, the British fiscal deficit and even the overall debt have deteriorated seriously. At present, the overall borrowings of the United Kingdom exceeds US$ 2.5 trillion, the highest annual deficit since World War II. The related deficits and debts have skyrocketed, which only add to the already huge burden of Britain with little reserves. Therefore, it is generally predicted that the British government will increase taxes in the future with few options at hand, which will hit the economy even more.
　　Affected by the above situations, the implied volatility of the three-month pound sterling is higher than the forex volatility index, while the net short position of the pound has continued to rise, both reflecting the continued pessimism of the forex market towards the pound.
　　The dollar will fall in the short term due to domestic turmoil, and if the European-British negotiations really see a dramatic turnaround, it’s likely that the GBP/USD will rise from the previous 1.2650 and then fall back to the 1.1960 level. Judging from the overall trend, I think there is still a chance for the pair to retest the low of 1.1400 in the second half of the year.
　　[About The Author]
　　Since 1987, Jasper Lo has been engaged in the financial industry (forex, futures and gold) for more than 32 years and holds forex R.O., securities and futures broker licenses. Mr Lo is an expert in trading forex, precious metals and commodity futures and an basic and technical analyst.
　　Over the years, Mr Lo won many individual and team sales champion awards, as well as outstanding employee awards. He was invited, as a guest mentor, to the University of Hong Kong, Guangdong Ocean University and Guangzhou Jinan University. And he was also appointed as the chief training consultant by Hantang Securities and Dongguan Securities in China.