WTI Crude Oil: Looking for Direction!
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Although crude oil prices have recovered from their lowest levels since late April recorded during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, business leaders and oil industry experts are questioning whether oil demand has really peaked or not.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
The outbreak and spread of COVID-19 caused oil prices to plummet, with futures prices dropping to a negative value for the first time in history. The demand for energy consumption fell sharply mainly due to governments‘ measures of lockdown and social distancing orders that restricted people to travel and put countries’ aviation industry into a battle to survive.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil demand will decrease by an average of 8 million barrels/day this year, or about 8% lower than last year. Although the IEA estimates oil demand will increase by 5.7 million barrels/day next year, overall demand will remain lower than in 2019 due to ongoing uncertainty in the aviation sector.
This gloomy outlook has made many observers question whether market demand can return to 2019 levels？ The concept of oil at its peak has long been the subject of discussion. Experts mainly focus on production peaks, with forecasts that oil prices will skyrocket when underground oil resources are exhausted.
But in recent months, the concept of a demand peak has emerged, after the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the fuel demand of the transport industry, plus those efforts to move to cleaner fuel sources. Environmental groups have been campaigning to stop the Paris Agreement on climate change from becoming another victim of the COVID-19 pandemic, said Professor Michael Bradshaw at the Warwick Business School (UK), at the same time emphasized the need for a Green New Deal in the economic recovery process.
Professor Bradshaw argues that if environmental groups succeed, demand for “black gold” may never return to the highest levels ever recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the transport sector may never fully recover, and after a pandemic, people may have different attitudes toward international air travel or work habits.
According to IEA CEO Fatih Birol, many people including CEOs of several large companies think that with today's lifestyle changes, oil demand may have peaked and will begin to drop. Meanwhile, the oil industry may face financial challenges.
Bronwen Tucker, an analyst at the non-governmental organization Oil Change International (OCI), said the oil industry is under great pressure from investors. “The giant” Royal Dutch Shell (UK-Netherlands) said last week that the asset value of this business has decreased by about 22 billion USD when reassessing the value of the business under the influence of COVID-19. Last month, Britain's BP also announced the net worth of the oil and gas conglomerate decreased by $ 17.5 billion. While China actively buys crude oil when it is so cheap and so that the tanker congestion has formed at sea.
China is currently the world's second largest oil consumer after the US. As of June 29, the country has accumulated 73 million barrels of oil, which is stored in 59 ships floating at sea, according to data from ClipperData - the company tracks the movement of crude oil at sea in real time. This is equivalent to three-quarters of the world's demand.
The recently landed oil was probably purchased in March and April, when oil prices plummeted due to the pandemic. WTI US crude oil dropped to negative on April 20 for the first time in history.
China's floating oil storage - which includes barrels of oil waiting on board for seven days or more - has nearly quadrupled since the end of May, according to ClipperData. This is not only a record number since the beginning of 2015, but also 7 times higher than the monthly average in the first quarter of 2020.
The storage of oil at sea shows that China is making a profit when the world energy market falls into a period of extreme crisis. “China is buying massive globally,” said Matt Smith, director of cargo strategy at ClipperData. “The number of oil at sea is growing rapidly.”
Smith also said China's inland oil depots were not even filled yet. “This was simply due to an out-of-port congestion. So many tankers arrived that they couldn't bring it ashore in time,” he explained.
The main buying power of China has partly pulled up the oil market. Just 7 weeks after falling to a negative of nearly $40, US crude oil rose again to $40 a barrel. The difference of 80 cent USD was created by the unprecedented reduction in production by OPEC and Russia, the world lockdown situation was loosened and demand from China increased sharply.
