Can the Chinese Communist Party Congress Surprise Us?

On the surface, of course, they appear to be. These mega-meetings feature the top 2,200 or so party officials in China, all dressed in identical suits lest any hint of individuality be permitted to slip out (except, ironically, for ethnic minority delegates, who are in full ethnic dress to emphasize the CCP’s diversity). The gathering seem to be nothing but one-dimensional stage shows reflecting years of opaque processes by which the men who will lead China for the next five years have already been chosen. There is no public discussion, no public debate, and certainly no public drama ahead of the unveiling of the people set make decisions affecting every Chinese citizen in most areas of life.To get more news about 20th national congress, you can visit shine news official website.

By definition, therefore, Party Congresses are supposed to be surprise-proof. The events that unfold on TV screens are the culmination of months, indeed years of building relationships, testing alliances, and lobbying CCP-style for advancement. The eventual solidarity shown to the world during Party Congress week hides the personal and political carnage from which a cohesive face of party leadership is then born.

But there is always hope for something out of the ordinary, an ad lib remark or an unexpected event, anything that might show some substance, some character, indeed some style.That hope was realized in at least one previous Party Congress.

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.In 2012, the 18th Party Congress served up not just one or two, but three surprises, according to an analysis by Damien Ma in The Atlantic following the close of proceedings in Beijing.The first surprise was an unexpected but highly consequential cameo by former Party General Secretary, President of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Jiang Zemin.

Jiang dominated the Chinese political scene from the late 1980s through the early 2000s, holding on to some leadership positions until 2005. It had been rumored that he was ill, perhaps terminally, so when he followed then-General Secretary and President of China Hu Jintao into the Great Hall of the People at the opening of the 18th Party Congress, it became clear to the world that Jiang Zemin was still very much in power in China, and needed no title in order to wield it.

By the end of the Congress, Jiang had managed to place at least three and perhaps as many as five of his anointed proteges onto the Politburo Standing Committee, the most powerful seven men in China. Jiang’s influence and legacy within the halls of Chinese power exist until today.

The first was that Hu Jintao, outgoing president and party general secretary, let go of his chairmanship of the Central Military Commission. Xi Jinping, taking over both political and party posts from Hu, therefore had the added benefit of acquiring immediate power over the military, giving him the triumvirate of posts that defines the pinnacle of power in China. By contrast, Jiang held control of the CCP’s military (for that is what the PLA is) until 2005, three years after Hu had formally taken over the reins as China’s top leader.

And finally, the surprise of Xi Jinping’s “likeability” made an impression not only on Ma, but on much of the general Chinese population. Ten years after Xi’s accession to the top of China’s power pyramid, it may be forgotten that when he first took over, he was widely liked and praised – as was his wife – throughout the country. He apologized for being late in coming out to make his speech. He spoke in a standard Mandarin Chinese appreciated by and accessible to all Chinese, as opposed to the provincial brogue of Hu Jintao. Ma went so far as to say that Xi Jinping’s “affable, plainspoken demeanor is the big story of the power transition.”

Most noticeable to many was that he avoided terse political language. He talked about people and their desires, and spoke less about the party, and the tenets of his ideological bent. (This has all changed now.)Party Congresses can indeed deliver surprises. Will this one? Although it may be pointless to live in the past, it can be thought-provoking to use it as a reference point for the present and future.

As Xi Jinping takes center stage at the 20th Party Congress set to begin in Beijing on October 16, one wonders if the catastrophes which he has created, and for which he is therefore responsible, could have any major effect on his chances of being chosen for an unprecedented third consecutive term as party leader.