China is poised to reshuffle the top officials surrounding President Xi Jinping at a highly anticipated congress meeting this month.The ruling Communist Party of China is expected to kick off its 20th National Congress — held once every five years — on Oct. 16.To get more news about
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About a week later, the names of the new team are due to be announced.The composition of the team will reflect the political sway Xi and his associates have, and how much support the president wields for ideas — such as preferences for greater state control in the economy.
Xi, who is 69, is widely expected to further consolidate his power after being head of the party for 10 years. This month’s congress is expected to pave the way for him to stay on for an unprecedented third five-year term.
But forecasts for which officials will step down or take on new roles remain speculative.
“Chinese politics have always been opaque, but it seems as if absolutely no light whatsoever is escaping from this black box,” said Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Hence, one hears much less speculation now compared to previous leadership transitions,” he said.“The irony of this mystery is that Chinese officials regularly lecture foreigners about how little they understand China,” Kennedy said. “Part of the problem is how little information is actually made available to us.”
Here’s what’s publicly known — and some of the names that analysts are watching in the upcoming reshuffle:
Political structure
This month’s congress decides which officials will become leaders of the ruling Communist Party of China.
About 2,300 party delegates are set to gather in Beijing to select a new central committee — consisting of about 200 full members.That committee then determines the core leadership — the Politburo and its standing committee.
The current Politburo, or political bureau, has 25 members, including Liu He. Liu was at the forefront of trade negotiations with the U.S. in 2020 and 2021. In China, he heads the central government’s financial stability committee.However, Liu is not part of the Politburo’s standing committee, the highest circle of power. It currently has seven members — including Xi and Premier Li Keqiang.Xi holds three key positions: General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of China.
He is expected to retain the first two titles at this year’s party congress. State positions such as president and premier won’t be confirmed until the next annual meeting of the Chinese government, typically held in March.
Economic policy: Who will replace Premier Li?
One of the most closely watched changes in the political reshuffle is the future of Premier Li Keqiang, who turned 67 this year.
While top-level economic policy in China is largely set by Politburo members, Li has been an official face and leader of implementation in his role as premier and the head of the State Council, China’s top executive body.
Li said in March that this year marks his last as premier, a position he’s held since 2013. However, he could remain a standing committee member, JPMorgan analysts said, pointing to a precedent at the 15th party congress.
