导出博客文章AMES, Iowa -- It was hardly a coincidence that Iowa State senior point guard Monte Morris had one his most complete games Sunday.
Air Force 1 Herren Günstig .Morris notched the fifth triple-double in school history and No. 20 Iowa State throttled The Citadel 130-63, setting a program record for points in a game.Morris had 17 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and zero turnovers for Iowa State (3-0), which shot 60.5 percent from the floor. The Cyclones held the Bulldogs (2-2) -- who entered play averaging a national-best 112.2 points a game -- to just 22 in the first half.Iowa State raced ahead 18-3 and pushed its lead to 32 after just 14 minutes. Iowa State cracked 100 with 11 minutes left, and coach Steve Prohm was able to pull Morris from the game with 7:46 left to a standing ovation.I think it started on the defensive end, and my guys made shots. I just got the ball to them, said Morris, who grabbed all 10 of his rebounds on defense.Naz Mitrou-Long tied a career-high with 26 points and Matt Thomas had 18 for the Cyclones, who are beating their opponents by an average of 42 points.Iowa States previous record for points in a game came in 1978, when it beat Northeastern Illinois 129-69.No disrespect to the past three teams weve played, but we definitely felt very confident in winning those three, Mitrou-Long said.Quayson Williams had 15 for the Bulldogs, who were outscored in the paint 78-12.BIG PICTUREIowa State: The Cyclones looked a bit discombobulated at times offensively in a 73-55 win over Mount St. Marys on Monday. But The Citadels looser approach to defense allowed Iowa State to regain its rhythm in record-setting fashion. Seven different Cyclones had an assist in the first half, and Thomas drilled his first four 3s in a game that was never in doubt for a Top 25 team. I thought this was our most complete game on both ends of the floor, Iowa State coach Steve Prohm said.The Citadel: The Bulldogs ran into a team that plays like they do -- as fast as possible -- but has more talent. The Citadel was picked to finish last in the Southern Conference for a reason.POLL IMPLICATIONSIowa State might get a boost simply by taking care of the teams it was supposed to take care of. The real tests will start to come next week, with possible opponents such as Miami, Stanford and Gonzaga.THE NUMBERSIowa State out-rebounded the Bulldogs 63-33 and had 31 assists on 52 baskets. ...Eight different Cyclones scored in double digits. Darrell Bowie and Merrill Holden each had 13 points, Solomon Young had 12 and Donovan Jackson and Nick Weiler-Babb scored 10 points. Bowie added 10 rebounds. ...Thomas has made a 3-pointer in 28 straight games. ...The Citadel didnt score a single fast-break point despite their style of play.HE SAID ITIm not concerned about all that stuff, who starts at quarterback, who starts at (center) -- if you win. Are you playing starter minutes and quality minutes? Thats what Im concerned about. -- Prohm said when asked whether Bowie or Holden -- both senior graduate transfers -- had begun to emerge as his starting center.UP NEXTIowa State plays Indiana State on Thursday in the opening round of the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, Florida.The Citadel plays at Arizona State on Wednesday.---More AP college basketball at
www.collegebasketball.ap.org Air Force 1 Damen Schweiz . Fred Couples, captain of the U.S. side, put it all into perspective. "We know whos in charge," he said.
Air Force 1 Just Do It Weiß . Scott won the Australian PGA last week in his first event in Australia since winning the U.S. Masters in April. American Matt Kuchar, ahead by two strokes with four to play and even with Scott with one to go, double-bogeyed the 18th after taking two shots to get out of a bunker.
http://www.airforce1justdoitschweiz.ch/ . -- There were so many positives from the Orlando Magics first victory of the season that it was hard for coach Jacque Vaughn to stop praising his players. Antonio Brown is ridiculous. You already know that by now, and what he did against Washington on Monday Night Football didnt exactly change things. Brown torched the underrated-but-overmatched Bashaud Breeland for eight catches, 126 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, while superstar corner Josh Norman just watched on in horror. Despite the absence of Martavis Bryant and?LeVeon Bell?to draw attention from Brown,?Pittsburghs star receiver was a one-man wrecking crew.Its no accident that Brown was the consensus top pick in fantasy football drafts before the 2016 season. Hes a dominant wide receiver playing in an era where teams throw the ball and score more than ever before. Brown broke out as one of the leagues best receivers with his 110-catch, 1,499-yard receiving season in 2013, and hes upped both his receptions and receiving yards in each of the two ensuing campaigns. Its obviously too early to say if hell keep that trend up in 2016, but if he does improve on his 2015 performance, we could be looking at a campaign which threatens the receiving record books.Should the record books be scared? I was wondering the same thing and came up with the idea to build a model to test Browns chances. Brown will only have one shot to break the records, but what if we gave him 5,000 tries? Using a Monte Carlo simulator, we can estimate Browns shot at greatness and identify what might represent the upper limits of his greatness.We dont have enough data to really build a robust simulation, given that we only have three full seasons (plus one 2016 game and two postseason contests) of Brown performing at his current level, but thats going to be the basis of our piece. Brown has already bagged that Week 1 line, so hes already got the eight catches, 126 yards and two touchdowns to his name. For the other 15 games of 2016, well use a random number generator to pick one of the 47 games Brown has played with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback since the start of the 2013 season. Hell get credit for the receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns he scored from the game in question, ranging from his 47-yard game against the Bengals last year to the 284 yards he put up against Oakland the following week.There are two other factors which enter into the simulation. One is Browns health. While he has played all 16 games in each of the last three years, Brown did miss time with injuries before that stretch, and he was out for Pittsburghs playoff loss to Denver after suffering a concussion at the hands of Vontaze Burfict in the wild-card round. We can hope Brown plays all 16 games, but we cant assume it.So, we have to estimate Browns chances of playing a given number of games by seeing what typically healthy players did. To model that, I looked at every wide receiver since 1990 who played 16 games in his age-27 season and produced eight or more points of Approximate Value, the pro-football-reference.com statistic. Of those players, 60 percent played in all 16 games the following year, 70 percent made it to 15 games, 80 percent to 14, and onward. We already know Brown will play one game, but some of the sims suggested he could play as few as two. Another random number generator used those percentages to project the number of games Brown will play in 2016. Obviously, hell need to stay as healthy as possible to have the best shot at accruing the massive totals needed to set receiving records.We also must account for the likelihood of Brown getting to play with Roethlisberger for 16 games. We have a larger sample to work with for Roethlisbergers health. While he has missed plenty of games during his lengthy career, his absences include several games where he was rested during a meaningless Week 17 and the four-game suspension he incurred in 2010. Take those unlikely-to-recur events out and Roethlisberger has played in 94.5 percent of the games we would expect since taking over the starting job during the first month of his rookie campaign.Brown only played four games without Roethlisberger since the beginning of that 2013 season, all of which came last year, with his numbers suffering dramatically. Browns averaged 8.1 catches, 109.7 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns in those 47 games with Roethlisberger. Without him, Brown averaged 4.3 catches, 58.8 yards, and didnt score a receiving touchdown. Thats a drop-off of 47.7 percent in receptions and 46.5 percent in yards. For each game Brown plays in our simulation, well also check for the 5.5 percent chance that Roethlisberger might be injured. If he is, well still pick one of those 47 Roethlisberger games, but well cut Browns receiving totals from that game by the percentages I just mentioned. (Since its unrealistic to say Brown will never catch a touchdown without Roethlisberger, I decided to cut his touchdowns in those games by 47.1 percent to stay in line with the other two figures.)Of course, there are a few holes in this simulation. Roethlisbergers injuries are likely to be highly correlated as an all-or-nothing sort of thing, so its more plausible that he misses a bunch of games or has a 16-game season than our simulation, where hes more likely to just miss a random game. Brown may be capable of performances which are better or worse than his previously established level of expectation. Theres also a possibility of Brown surpassing the records while somebody else like?Odell Beckham Jr.?produces even greater statistics. By any stretch of the imagination,?this is not a perfect examination. As a reasonable estimate, though, it will do just fine.So, with those caveats, I ran Browns 2016 season through the wringer 5,000 times. Lets see what came out.To start, I can tell you that Brown has basically no chance of hitting Randy Moss record of 23 receiving touchdowns in one season given his past level of production, even after picking up two in the opener. It happened just twice across the 5,000 seasons, which leaves two other titles for the taking:Receptions, Current Record: Marvin Harrison (143 receptions, 2002)This model actually projeccts Browns receptions total to drop based on the gaudy expectations of the last few years, if only because he misses at least one game about 40 percent of the time.
Nike Air Huarache Schweiz. The average receptions total for Brown across the 5,000 simulations is 116 catches, with the median figure at 121 receptions. If we were to solely look at the seasons where he plays all 16 games, Browns average campaign produces just under 128 catches, which is right in line with the 129 receptions he pulled in 2014.In terms of getting to the mark Marvin Harrison hit with the Colts in 2002, Browns chances arent great, but theyre better than they would be for just about any other player in the first month of a typical season. The simulation found that Brown finished with 144 catches or more 4.7 percent of the time, or just over one in every 21 tries. It doesnt help that hes already behind the pace on receptions; after accruing eight in the opener, Brown would need to average better than nine per game over the next 15 weeks to make it to 144.We might be underestimating Browns chances there, though, if only because the likelihood that hell fall just short is slim. We know from Browns five-catch, 50-yard streak that Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are sensitive to records; in 2014, they forced a late throw to Brown to extend the streak. If Brown gets close to the record, its fair to expect the Steelers to force him the ball and break it.If you assume that Brown is going to surpass the record if he even gets close, his chances rise. For example, Brown finished with 140 catches in our simulation 8.9 percent of the time. He topped 135 catches in 16.6 percent of the seasons. Im not sure which number you should use, but I suspect the true likelihood of Brown setting the record is probably closer to the 8.9 percent mark than it is to the 4.7 percent figure.The best-case scenario, the one where Brown blows away the record books? That came in season 3,840, which picked Browns 17-catch game against the Raiders from last year three times. Brown had just two games all season with fewer than eight catches and set the record in Week 15 before putting some distance underneath his totals. He finished the year with 174 catches.The most impressive year, though, might have been season 1,211. Brown missed two games with an injury, leaving him with a mere 14 games to set the record. He also was without Roethlisbergers services for one of those games. (The simulator chose the Raiders game, which meant that Brown still finished his start with nine catches.) Brown still managed to pull off his miraculous feat, though, by averaging better than 10 catches per game and finishing the year with 145 receptions to set the new receptions record.Receiving Yards, Current Record: Calvin Johnson (1,964 yards, 2012)Brown has a better shot at the receiving yardage record, given that he manages to combine his obscene receiving volume with incredible work after the catch and a fair number of big plays downfield. When Harrison had his 143-catch season in 2002, he averaged 12 yards per catch. Since 2013, Browns averaged 13.5 yards per reception. When were talking about hundreds of catches, that difference adds up.Again, because of the likelihood of injury, the average Brown season fails to live up to what he did in 2015, when he accrued 1,834 receiving yards. Our simulations average Brown season had him pick up 1,583 receiving yards, with the median at 1,641 yards. The average total in 16-game seasons was 1,745 receiving yards, which would be better than his 2014 total (1,698 yards).Brown did top Megatron, though, by gaining 1,965 receiving yards or more in 7.9 percent of the simulated seasons. You would figure that Brown would try and make a run for 2,000 yards, but he only made it that far in 5.8 percent of the campaigns. In reality, I would again expect that Brown would be less likely to settle in the range between those two figures than our simulation realizes, even if Johnson ended up 35 yards short. And if you believe that Tomlin would push Brown over the top if he was even close to Johnsons figures, you might want to know that Brown hit 1,900 yards in our simulations 12.4 percent of the time.I was hoping Brown would have one 2,500-yard season to totally blow the league away, but he came up narrowly short. In season 4,773, Brown caught 171 passes (with Roethlisberger missing one game!) and turned them into 2,490 receiving yards. In this universe, Brown hit 2,000 yards in Week 13, which is downright nuts. He actually slowed down over the final month, given that he started the year with 10 100-yard games in 11 weeks before finishing with just two in his final five contests.In these 5,000 universes [universii?], Brown also produced two 2,000-yard seasons during 14-game campaigns, which is another level of insanity. The most fascinating season might actually be his 16-game floor, which was season 367. Roethlisberger missed three games due to injury and Brown produced just two more 100-yard games after the opener, and it just didnt matter. He still finished the year with 1,246 receiving yards, which would have been good for ninth in the league last season. When your worst-case scenario as a healthy player is basically halfway between A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald, youre really good.If these expectations seem low, remember that just about everything needs to go right for a player to break a single-season record. Keep in mind how many truly great players never even sniffed setting one of this type of record. Brown had to be in the right era with the right offensive coordinator and the right quarterback to have a hope of reaching these lofty heights. He has to stay healthy and continue to play at an incredibly high level. If everything breaks right, though, Antonio Brown is so talented and has been sufficiently productive to put immortality within his grasp. Just ask Bashaud Breeland. ' ' '
