When an offense is as good as that of the , it feels like you have to play them every week.The Rams are 3-0-1 against the spread through four weeks and head into Week 5 as seven-point favorites on the road in a divisional game against the . Seattle is clearly the right side to play in this matchup, but the worry is that the Rams are so explosive that standard rules of betting don't apply to them.That's why I wanted to dig into similarly elite offenses throughout the last few decades to see if they were able to keep it up over the rest of the season. To do that, I took through four weeks and added up their ATS records over the rest of the season.The results? Don't just autoplay the Rams from here on out.Best DVOA offenses through four weeks, ATS rest of year:'99 WAS: 6-6 ATS'13 DEN: 7-5 ATS'98 DEN: 6-6 ATS'05 SD: 7-5 ATS'07
Vernon Adams Jr Jersey NE: 6-6 ATS'02 KC: 7-4-1 ATS'07 DAL: 5-7 ATS'18 LAR: ??? ATS'05 SEA: 7-4-1 ATS'97 DEN: 5-7 ATS'01 STL: 7-5 ATS'10 NE: 8-3-1 ATS It appears at some point the spreads get inflated enough that these historically great offenses have trouble covering week in and week out. However, these offenses did do slightly better than average on the whole, so there are still situations I'll be looking to play the Rams. But touchdown favorites on the road in a divisional matchup isn't one of them.If you clicked through to Football Outsiders above, you'd have seen that the
Tyler Huntley Jersey 2018 are also tracking as historically awful through four weeks, with the fourth-lowest DVOA of all time in the first four weeks of the season. Is there a trend with similarly awful teams that can help us know whether to fade them every week?Worst DVOA offenses through four weeks, ATS rest of year:'13 JAC: 5-6-1 ATS'02 HOU: 5-6-1 ATS'04 MIA: 6-6 ATS'18 BUF: ??? ATS'01 WAS: 8-4 ATS'90 PIT: 8-4 ATS'86 IND: 7-5 ATS'09 OAK: 6-6 ATS'07 CHI: 7-5 ATS'89 DAL: 6-6 ATS'99 PHI: 8-4 ATS'17 IND: 6-6 ATS Just like with the Rams, we see these historical outliers hover around .500 ATS over the rest of the season; however, these teams also do slightly better than average on the whole. Maybe there's something to be said for taking the Bills when a line gets overinflated, though I'm not sure that applies this week. More NFL If you want to know which sides I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on .Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. That includes which lines are on the move, which home-field advantages aren't getting enough credit, which injuries you should be monitoring, my top teaser play of the week and plenty more. Let's get to it.My picksOver at SportsLine, for the Thursday night game between the and , and I'll have several more for you by Friday night. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!Biggest line movesColts at Patriots -10.5 -3 at at -6.5 at -4.5 The Patriots were eight-point favorites on the lookahead line before finally looking like the New England of old in Week 4 against the Dolphins. That caused the line to jump to Patriots -10 in this matchup,
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Jersey and with the Colts , it's no surprise to see it as high as 10.5.The Ravens were favored by only a point on the lookahead line but took care of busine s as road 'dogs in Pittsburgh last week and are now giving a full field goal on the road against the Browns, a team that finally found some offense in Week 4 despite a lo s.The Bengals were favored by just four points in this matchup heading into Week 4, but a comeback win over the coupled with the Dolphins finally putting up a dud caused the line to jump to Bengals -6.5. You know who else was 6.5-point favorites against the Dolphins? The Patriots last week. Are the Bengals as good as the Patriots? I doubt it. This line is probably too high. The Chargers were 6.5-point favorites on the lookahead line, but after struggling to beat the 49ers despite San Francisco starting a backup quarterback, the line is falling. I think there's value on the Chargers at this number, but asking them to cover anything more than a field goal in any matchup with their kicking game might be asking for trouble. The DVOA edge -3.5 at BillsDolphins +6.5 at Bengals -3 vs. Seahawks +7 vs. Rams -3 vs. One of the things I like to look for when di secting matchups is one where the Football Outsiders DVOA doesn't agree with the betting line. I don't have a specific formula, but my standard is basically four points of DVOA for every point on the neutral-field line, though once the line gets big enough I think it's more like five points of DVOA. Since the statistic started incorporating opponent adjustments this week, I think it's a good time to break it
Reggie Roberson Jr. Jersey out here. Note that I'm actually using what are called DAVE ratings, which is the same as DVOA except that it blends preseason prediction with regular season results over the first half of the season.So for example, the are seven-point favorites against the . I have the Panthers with a 2.5-point home-field advantage, so my neutral line is Panthers -4.5. Carolina has a DVOA of 4.1 percent, while the Giants have a DVOA of -16.6 percent. That's a difference of 20.7 points, which suggests the neutral line should be about five points. That's about where we have it, so I don't see much value on either side.I have five games this week where the difference between each team's DVOA rating suggests the line is off by a significant margin. The Bills have been so bad that the Titans should be closer to six-point favorites, even in Buffalo. The Dolphins and Bengals have nearly the same DVOA rating, which suggests the line should be Bengals -3. Both the Eagles and Texans have about a five
D'Andre Swift Jersey -point edge in DVOA and better than average home-field advantages, so making them four-point favorites in each game makes more sense than making each line three. And even with DAVE ratings turning the Rams from astronomically excellent to just regular excellent, the line is still too high for the difference in DVOA. The Seahawks grade out right around average, and when factoring in home-field, the numbers suggest this line should be closer to Rams -4 or -4.5. Players returning from suspensionsColts at Patriots -10.5Ravens -3 at BrownsGiants at Panthers -7Dolphins at Bengals -6.5Raiders at Chargers -4.5Cowboys at Texans -3 at -6.5Some teams have been playing without a key player due to four-game suspensions handed out during the offseason, so before fadin
