loss This game was something. Each week when this article gets put together
George Asafo-Adjei NFL Jersey , there’s one or two really big plays and the rest are meaningful but don’t have a massive impact on the result. That was not the case in the 33-31 New York Giants loss to the Carolina Panthers. There were numerous big plays and big swings, especially in the second half. These are the biggest plays in the game, by Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added (EPA). Explainers here (WPA) and here (EPA).Both WPA and EPA presented from the perspective of the offense.Not so special teams - 14:21, second quarterEPA: -7.22 | WPA: -16.6 percentSo this happened.The Giants have struggled to find success on punt returns, so Odell Beckham Jr. got the call in this game. He had a 15-yard return early in the game, but this play was as bad as they get and Beckham wasn’t trying to return it. In an attempt to push the closest defender away and let the ball get into the end zone, the ball instead brushed off Beckham’s leg, bounced around, an in another comedy of errors with more Giants trying to jump on the ball, it ended up in the end zone in Carolina’s possession for a touchdown.When you need something done 鈥?- 6:48, second quarterEPA: 5.54 | WPA: 18.3 percentIn an interview with ESPN that aired pre-game, Odell Beckham said he was disappointed in the lack of deep passes for the offense this season. So he did it himself. On a second-and-18, Beckham took a backward pass from Eli Manning and unloaded a throw with a defender in his face across the field to an open Saquon Barkley for a 57-yard touchdown. Trick plays with wide receiver throws often create ample space for the throw, but the degree of difficulty on this throw was not easy. The play not only gave the offense a needed boost, it saved the Giants from a likely punt following a 2nd and 18.A poor defensive hold - 4:22, third quarterEPA: 3.08 | WPA: 10.7 percentCarolina lined up to punt on fourth-and-8 from the Giants’ 41-yard line, but an encroachment penalty on Kareem Martin moved it up to a fourth-and-3 and the Panthers chose to keep the offense on the field. The result of the play was initially incomplete, but a hold was called on B.W. Webb away from the throw. The five-yard penalty allowed the Panthers drive to continue and Webb’s extra 15-yard penalty for making contact with an official made it worse. Three easily avoidable penalties could have cost the Giants, but they ended up not mattering all that much because...Dueling interceptions, part 1Cam Newton to Curtis Riley - 3:44, third quarterEPA: minus-4.3 | WPA: minus-11.7 percent...three plays later Cam Newton threw an interception. After a holding penalty, the Panthers faced a second-and-20 at the Giants’ 26. Newton had time to throw and ripped a pass up the middle toward rookie tight end Ian Thomas, but the throw was off-line (or Thomas didn’t cut his route correctly) and the ball was placed perfectly into the waiting arms of Curtis Riley, who returned it for another 12 yards.Eli Manning to Mike Adams - 1:38, third quarterEPA: minus-5.94 | WPA: minus-12 percentBut not to be outdone, Eli Manning gave the ball right back to the Panthers on the following drive. This first-and-10 play looks like an RPO — the right side of the line plus a pulling Will Hernandez run blocked — with the read based on the pre-snap box count. With six men on the line and one more directly behind them
George Asafo-Adjei NFL Draft , Manning decided to throw — not the wrong decision with one-on-one coverage outside. But at the snap, pressure got through on the right side and Mike Adams, one of the Panthers on the line, dropped back into coverage. With the need to get the ball out quickly, Manning threw into what he thought would be an open window for Beckham one-on-one. But Manning never saw Adams drop back and the throw went straight to the defender. Catch CMC - 11:28, fourth quarterEPA: 3.39 | WPA: 13.1 percentCarolina went nine plays and 68 yards on the drive following the interception, capped off by an 18-yard touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey. It was a beautiful play design by the Panthers to get McCaffrey into space. Carolina came out in shotgun with a 2x2 formation and McCaffrey in the backfield to the right. At the snap, the two receivers on the right side ran slants to the inside, which pulled all the defenders away from the sideline. That opened everything up for McCaffrey to take a swing pass, turn the corner, and score.The touchdown gave the Panthers a two-score lead, 27-16.Dueling interceptions, part 2Eli Manning to Mike Adams, again - 10:41, fourth quarterEPA: minus-3.74 | WPA: minus-11.3 percentIt didn’t get much better for the Giants on the next drive — one that lasted only two plays ended with another Eli Manning interception. After a 1-yard Saquon Barkley run on first down, the Giants faced a second-and-9. The Giants tried to go downfield again — something that worked well in this game — but Manning didn’t really step into the throw and the pass floated up the field instead of the sideline where Sterling Shepard was located. Again, Mike Adams was in perfect position for the interception.Cam Newton to Janoris Jenkins - 9:08, fourth quarterEPA: minus-5.86 | WPA: minus-22.1 percentBut, Newton would not be outdone. While Newton threw the first pick of the game and Manning answered on the following drive, the two switched roles in the fourth quarter. Three plays after the Panthers picked off Manning, Newton threw another interception intended for Ian Thomas. With pressure from Landon Collins in his face, Newton threw outside of Thomas and into the waiting arms of Janoris Jenkins, who turned into a punt returner and gained another 29 yards of zigging and zagging after the pick, down to the Carolina 34.Beckham gets one - 8:16, fourth quarterEPA: 3.65 | WPA: 13.1 percentIt only took the Giants two plays to find the end zone. The first was another one-yard run from Barkley. But the second was a 33-yard strike to Odell Beckham for his first receiving touchdown of the season. It was a perfect strike to Beckham in the end zone and the second-most improbable completion of the week across the entire league, per Next Gen Stats
George Asafo-Adjei Buffalo Bills Jersey , with a completion probability of just 15.1 percent. Beckham came close to a receiving touchdown earlier in the game, but a great defensive play by James Bradberry knocked the ball out of Beckham’s hands. With Bradberry again in great coverage here, Beckham was able to hold on.The touchdown and the successful two-point conversion brought the Giants within three points — 27-24. All the Wright moves - 3:27, fourth quarterEPA: 3.02 | WPA: 5.8 percentOn the next drive, the Panthers faced a fourth-and-1 from the Giants’ 44. Carolina kept the offense out on the field and the Giants expected a QB sneak. They lined up seven players on the line of scrimmage and sent all of them. Christian McCaffrey ran to the flat out of the backfield, which pulled the shallow defender, Eli Apple. That left Jarius Wright wide open with Curtis Riley a step slow to cover. The deep pass gained 27 yards. Carolina would eventually kick a field goal to go up six points with just over two minutes remaining. Barkley breaks free - 1:15, fourth quarterEPA: 3.57 percent | WPA: 2.2 percentThere’s a theory for a leading team that it’s better to be up three late in the game, than up by four, five, or six points. With the typical timidness of NFL play-calling, a team trailing by three is more likely to play for a field goal to tie instead of playing aggressively for a touchdown to win. But a team down by four-to-six points knows it needs a touchdown will have no choice but to have that aggressive mentality.That’s what happened when the Panthers went from up three to up six and the Giants made sure to go down the field quickly. They went 75 yards in just four plays, the biggest of which was a 40-yard pass to Russell Shepard that gave the Giants a first-and-10 at the Carolina 15 with just over a minute remaining. Getting into that situation skyrocketed the Giants’ win probability, which is why the win probability for Saquon Barkley’s 15-yard touchdown catch looks so low compared to all the other plays listed.Barkley only got four targets in the game, but two of them were for the game’s biggest plays. The Giants sent Barkley out of the backfield and lucked out with defensive end Efe Obada in coverage. Obada started to rush the passer but turned in coverage once Barkley left the backfield and once that happened, it was too late. Barkley leaped into the end zone for a touchdown and the extra point gave the Giants a 31-30 lead.Gano is good - 0:06, fourth quarterEPA: 3.75 | WPA: 98.1 percentIf this game wasn’t weird enough, there was this final drive. There was the inside run on third-and-1 at the Giants’ 46 with 30 seconds left and no timeouts remaining. Even as the refs marked a first down, the Panthers didn’t have a lot of time push the ball further down the field. After a spike and incomplete pass, the Panthers stayed at the 46 and brought on Graham Gano for a game-winning 63-yard field goal — something you can see by the win probability added, didn’t have a real good chance at happening. But we all know what did happen and how this game improbably ended. Could a trade of Olivier Vernon for Dee Ford be a solution for New York and Kansas City’s problems?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections New York Giants NewsGiants Training Camp 2016Giants vs. Eagles 2015, Week 17New York Giants NewsOlivier Vernon for Dee Ford? It's a trade worth consideringNew,47commentsCould a trade of Olivier Vernon for Dee Ford be a solution for New York and Kansas City’s problems?ESTShareTweetShareShareOlivier Vernon for Dee Ford? It's a trade worth consideringKirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsThe highlight of the NFL Scouting Combine is always the prospects on the field. This weekend is for them to show what they can do for the NFL, and the entire NFL world gathers in Indianapolis to watch them do it. But any time you get that many NFL people together news gets made, and it's often only tangentially related to the NFL Draft. The first tidbit we got was that the New York Giants were exploring trade options for Olivier Vernon, and if they couldn't find one to their liking
Infant Christopher Slayton Jersey , they would cut him for the cap relief. It has been long suspected that Vernon might be a cap casualty as the Giants seek to navigate the continued rebuilding of their roster with limited cap space, the move to trade him for a draft pick (or cut him outright) would create more problems than it solves. While it could certainly be argued that Vernon is not worth every penny of the $39 million he is owed over the remaining two years of his contract, the argument is from an “availability” perspective, and not an “ability” one. Vernon has missed nine games over the last two seasons, but when on the field he has been one of the best in the league at pressuring quarterbacks. And while that pressure doesn’t show up in the box score, it does impact quarterbacks and disrupt offenses. As our own Dan Pizzuta pointed out, the problem with the Giants’ pass rush isn’t with the pass rushers on the field in 2018, but rather with their depleted secondary. Not only did the Giants’ secondary not give pass rushers the time to get to quarterbacks, they were unable to capitalize when pressure was applied. There is also the fact that without Olivier Vernon on the field in the first five games, the Giants’ bad pass rush was virtually non-existent. Over those games, the Giants only managed to collect six sacks and half of them came in Week 3 against the Houston Texans and the worst pass protecting offensive line in the NFL (62 sacks given up, 32nd in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders)Part of the rationale for trading Vernon is that this is a very talented draft class for EDGE rushers, but given the realities of the NFL, moving on from Vernon would likely lock the Giants in to having to spend the sixth overall pick on a pass rusher to keep from taking a step back on defense. The position is among the most coveted in the NFL, which results in the massive free agent contracts, and the fact that if a team wants a good one in the draft, they have to use their first round pick on them. Athleticism is essential to being a consistently effective pass rusher in the NFL, and athletes are drafted early. It is unlikely at best that a rusher who could even replace Vernon lasts to the second round. They might be able to find a player like Boston College’s Zach Allen at that point. But he is a pure defensive lineman and, like Vernon, best at creating pressure but doesn’t have the dynamic athleticism to be a sack artist in the NFL. That would, at the most optimistic, be a lateral move at best. And if the Giants are locked in to drafting a pass rusher at sixth overall, they might also be locking themselves into having no starting quarterback in 2020 (or expending more assets to reach for a bad option out of desperation). Dave Gettleman, and Giants fans, might be itching to get back into the third round after spending the pick to acquire Sam Beal in the supplementary draft, as well as creating cap space for 2019. And at this point it seems unlikely that Vernon will be a Giant in 2019
Christopher Slayton Jersey Draft , even if that creates more questions than answers. But then another piece of news broke when it was announced on Saturday that the Kansas City Chiefs are placing the franchise tag on EDGE Dee Ford, but they are also willing to listen to trade offers. The fact that both Vernon and Ford could be on the trading block presents an opportunity and creative solutions to problems for both franchises. As Schefter mentions, the Chiefs are switching from Bob Sutton’s 3-4 defense to the scheme run by Steve Spagnuolo. And while Ford is a talented pass rusher, the 6-foot-2, 252-pound outside linebacker isn’t a great fit in Steve Spagnuolo’s 4-3 Under based defense. And while the Chiefs need to upgrade their defense as a whole, their run defense needs particular attention.These details are what make trading Vernon for Ford an interesting proposition. Vernon was originally signed by Jerry Reese for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and would be a natural fit if returned to that scheme. He is a good pass rusher, but offers more in run defense than Ford does. As mentioned before, Vernon carries a $19.5 million cap hit in each of the next two years, but the Chiefs could sign him to an extension and lower that number. And while James Bettcher’s scheme isn’t vastly different from Spags,’ if he wants to call more plays from a 3-4 look, Ford is a better fit than Vernon. Likewise, Ford is a better speed rusher than Vernon, which is a piece missing from the Giants’ defense and could help them convert more pressures into hits and sacks. By using Vernon to acquire another pass rusher, it would help to prevent a return to the Giants’ non-existent pass rush from the first half of the season (before Vernon returned from injury). Former NFL agent Joel Corry estimates that a long-term deal for Ford could exceed Justin Houston’s $16.8 million per year ($52.5 million guaranteed) contract. And while that might be a considerable chunk of money, it presents an opportunity to lower the Giants’ cap number if they were to sign Ford to an extension. To do so they could structure the contract such that he has a very low base salary the first year and the larger numbers don’t hit until Eli Manning’s contract is off the books in 2020. With Vernon traded and Manning retired, the Giants would have $96 million with which to work that year (which could be as high as $125 million with a couple other moves) fittingFord in should be do-able.There is a question of what else might be needed to execute the trade. Ford had an injury-plagued career (missing 13 tames from 2015 to 2017), and that presents some risk to the Giants. Meanwhile, Vernon hasn’t been as dynamic, but he has been healthier, more consistent, and offers a natural fit and no learning curve for their new scheme. An even swap between players might be possible.So Giants fans, would you consider a trade of Olivier Vernon for Dee Ford?