NFL Week 1 value picks for Sunday and Mo

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NFL Week 1 value picks for Sunday and Mo

Posted By John Short     July 14, 2022    

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As Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season approaches, we already look to to s aside some of the idols of last season.

In looking for Week 1 value, our favorite targets to bet against are those teams that enjoy too much positive perception from the public. Conversely, we look to back those teams that are flying under the radar and, at least today, enjoy salivating matchup advantages.

Without further ado, lets hunt for betting value.

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NFL Week 1 value picksLos Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

Some would say that the Rams should worry about Reuben Foster Youth Jersey suffering a Super Bowl hangover. But I dont believe in myths. What I am worried about is the condition of Todd Gurley, whos surrounded by injury concerns and could be rusty, and of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, whos coming off an ACL tear that ended his previous season.

But the biggest obstacle to the Rams offensive flow in this game will be a Panthers front seven directed by All-Pro middle linebacker Luke Kuechly that will face insufficient resistance from a fairly new group of Ram blockers.

Now figure in a few Panthersplaymakers who wont encounter a similarly formidable defense I'm thinking of Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.

Prediction: Panthers pull off the upset 27-20.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p Terrell Mcclain Men Jersey .m. ET, FOX.

10 points may sound like a lot. But they shouldnt when you consider how difficult the Redskins will find it to move the ball. Theyll trot out a veteran quarterback whos new to the team. Case Keenum lacks a primary go-to receiver and reliable protection. Plus, tight end Jordan Reed, who suffered a concu sion during the preseason, is listed as questionable.

Washingtons offense will struggle to keep time of po se sion. As a result, its defense will suffer by having to stay on the field too long. In particular, the secondary looks lackluster after Josh Norman and Landon Collins. They wont contain Philadelphias multi-faceted pa sing attack.

Prediction: Eagles win 31-13 and cover the spread.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

Sure, the Jets offense has the higher-profile players such as LeVeon Bell. But consider that Bell sat out all of last season and didnt see a single preseason snap. He will be rusty. Even if he werent, hell struggle behind an offensive line that is vastly inferior in quality to the one that he ran behind in Pittsburgh.

On the other side, Buffalo retooled its protection Damon Harrison Women Jersey unit, which will finally keep Josh Allen from running for his life. Hell still be a formidable scrambler against a Jets front seven that mi ses two key linebackers. Also expect some deep bombs to one of multiple Buffalo speedsters at wide receiver.

Prediction: Bills win straight-up 20-17.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

It may be easy to write off the Falcons offense after itslast two underwhelming seasons. But the importance of having a good offensive coordinator is too easily underestimated. Atlantas previous one is back in the college ranks where he belongs. Now enter or rather re-enter Dirk Koetter, who already has a positive history in working with Matt Ryan.

Ryan will click under his old and new coordinator, and the trio consisting of himself, elite receiver Julio Jonesand Calvin Ridley will be too much for Minnesotas defense to handle in this game.

Prediction: Falcons win straight-up 24-21.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

Miami seems to have given up on this season because it let many of its best players find new teams. Two examples are its best offensive lineman last season, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whos now a Texan, and its secondarys top tackler, Larry McDonald.

While Baltimore lost some important pieces of its own, it still po se ses enough on both sides of the ball. Mark Ingram III is one of multiple Ravens backs who will do damage to a Dolphins front seven that allowed 4.8 YPC last season.

On the other side, Baltimore will still have a strong run defense led by two of Pro Football Focushighest-graded interior defenders, and its pa s defense should be even more effective.

The Dolphins will really struggle to score in this game behind a lower-quality offensive line and a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who will do nothing without Dirk Koetter as his offensive coordinator.

Prediction: Thomas Rawls Jersey Ravens win 20-7 and cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

Jacksonvilles offense will feature two key players who mi sed last years 30-14 lo s to these Chiefs. Look out for Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette to lead a balanced offensive attack. By winning the battle for time of po se sion, the Jaguars willkeep Kansas Citys offense on the sidelines where it cant develop a rhythm and cant score.

And who on the Chiefs offense can really challenge an elite Jacksonville defense? Patrick Mahomes, who had his lowest quarterback rating against these Jaguars, even though the Chiefs easily accrued more time of po se sion? Tyreek Hill, who was mostly blanketed by Jalen Ramsey? Look for the Jaguars front seven, featuring potential top defensive rookie Josh Allen, and their pair of top cornerbacks to keep the Chiefs offense in check.

Prediction: Jaguars win straight-up 21-20.

Tenne see Titans at Cleveland Browns ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

Cleveland is receiving a lot of hype and, on paper, much of it is justified. One thing I have a problem with is the a sumption that Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. will instantly develop chemistry when that takes time.

What I think will top headlines today is actually the Titans defense. Tenne sees pa s rush was average last year, but look for it to skyrocket behind Harold Landry, who was PFFs top rookie edge defender in last years final three games. Another noteworthy young defender is Rashaan Evans, Jake Kumerow Jersey who was PFFs third-best linebacker after Week 12, right behind Luke Kuechly.

Tenne sees secondary was already one of the best last year, finishing eighthin opposing pa ser rating. And it will keep Baker and Odell in check in todays game.

Prediction: Titans win straight-up 17-16.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.

It is asking a lot of Jacoby Bri sett to take over for Andrew Luck and succeed against one of last years top pa sing defenses. But its also asking a lot of the Chargers to rely on another running back than Melvin Gordon, whos still holding out, and to expect the same quality from their secondary without the injured Derwin James.

Indianapolis has a budding defense that promises to surprise many this year with its group of young, rising stars. It's led by last years defensive rookie of the year, Darius Leonard. Cornerback Kenny Moore, one of the NFLs best slot defenders based Larry Fitzgerald Women Jersey on opposing pa ser rating, is a staple in the secondary. Defensive tackle Denico Autry looks to build off his six-sack effort in December.

Prediction: Colts win straight-up 21-20.

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.

Mi sing A.J. Green is a huge deal to Cincinnatis offense. Last year, the Bengals lost all three November games that Andy Dalton played in without Green, failing to score more than 21 points every time.

On the other side, former Pro Bowler Vontaze Burfict leaves a linebacking group that doesn't have much left to limit Seattles running game. The Seahawks are deep at running back and like to use the ground attack to control tempo and establish a rhythm. Ru sell Wilson is pretty good, too.

Prediction: Seahawks win 24-13 and cover the spread.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ()

Sunday, Raekwon Davis Men Jersey Sept. 8, 4.25 p.m. ET, FOX.

Tampa Bays pa sing attack will not be so productive without Dirk Koetter at offensive coordinator. The team will also mi s having a decent backup for Jameis Winston, who is not a franchise quarterback.

But the teams biggest problem will be its offensive line. The Bucs have a group of talented receivers led by Mike Evans. But it will lack sufficient protection to keep Winston upright long enough for his receivers to get open. San Francisco boasts a nasty pa s rush led by numerous first-rounders like Nick Bosa and former Chief Dee Ford.

On the other side, Tampa Bay still suffers from one of the leagues worst defenses. Its the perfect opponent for Jimmy Garoppolo to get on track against.

Prediction: 49ers win straight-up 28-20.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

Today will mark Dallas fifth consecutive victory against the Giants. New York is a shell of its self from last year, which is saying a lot for a 5-11 team that finished last in its division. The Giants mi s Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, Golden Tate (suspension) and Corey Coleman (torn ACL) wont be available to help out an offense that will still (but for how much longer?) be led by Eli Manning.

New Yorks defense will also mi s important playmakers like Landon Collins and Olivier Vernon. It has Harrison Bryant Youth Jersey too many holes to stop Ezekiel Elliot and Amari Cooper, both of whom Dak Prescott is absolutely reliant on to put up good numbers.

Prediction: Cowboys win 31-17 and cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, FOX.

Arizona brings a new-look offense that Detroits defense may have trouble preparing for. But I think its consequential that the Cardinals havent tried to execute this offense during the preseason. The Cardinals will struggle to translate its offense in practice into succe s in an actual game.

Where I think Detroit wins this is twofold: its rush attack, led by rising star Kerryon Johnson against what will still be one of the leagues worst run defenses, and its pa s rush against a decrepit Arizona offensive line that wont keep Kyler Murray comfortable.

Prediction: Lions win 23-12 and cover the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots ()

Sunday, Sept. 8, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

The Patriots dont deserve to be favored by so many points. New England will have to grind for every first down without a legitimate deep threat Demaryius Thomas is trying to come off an injury, Josh Gordon will be rusty, Gronk is retired, NKeal Harry is injured ... and newly acquired Antonio Brown won't be available for this game. That leaves Julian Edelman and New Englands running backs. The trouble continues with a Patriotsoffensive line that is enduring some flux and has to contend with last years third-best defense in terms of sack rate.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will mi s Brown. But James Conner will continue to outdo what LeVeon Bell did behind one of the leagues best offensive lines. Look for James Washington to step up in the pa sing game while the Patriots focus on defending JuJu Smith.

Prediction: Patriots win 20-19, but fail to cover the Leighton Vander Esch Men Jersey spread.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints ()

Monday, Sept. 9 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

Given the teams recent history, its weird to imagine Houstons defense being subpar. But who is there really left, besides J.J. Watt, after the Texans lost Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle? A 35 year-old cornerback in Jonathan Joseph?

New Orleans offense thrives at home in the dome. Between Dennis Daley Men Jersey Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, the Saints po se s too many weapons for Houstons defense to handle and they will run away with this game.

Prediction: Saints win 31-21 and cover the spread.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders ()

Monday, Sept. 9 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

Many people may want to treat the Raiders as a stay-away bet given the drama surrounding Antonio Brown, who was released on Saturday. But theres truly no better cure for negative locker room drama than winning.

You can insult Oaklands franchise all you want, but the team will come out with a much improved offensive line thanks to Kolton Millers improved health. Much better blocking from Oakland will allow David Carr to find his receivers downfield. When Denvers pa s rush does succeed, Carr can dump it off to Jalen Richards, who will take advantage of one of the leagues worst defenses against pa s-catching running backs.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has been an average quarterback for a long time now and he doesnt have the same level of offensive talent surrounding him.

Prediction: Raiders win 27-18 and cover the spread.

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